{"id":894,"date":"2025-05-01T16:44:00","date_gmt":"2025-05-01T08:44:00","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/101.43.65.133:8899\/?p=894"},"modified":"2025-07-25T16:46:55","modified_gmt":"2025-07-25T08:46:55","slug":"warren-buffett-how-to-read-annual-reports","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/101.43.65.133:8899\/?p=894","title":{"rendered":"Warren Buffett.How to read annual reports"},"content":{"rendered":"<div id=\"bsf_rt_marker\"><\/div>\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u91cd\u70b9\u5173\u6ce8\u4e24\u4ef6\u4e8b\uff1a\u4e1a\u52a1\u7684\u8d28\u91cf\u548c\u7ba1\u7406\u7684\u8d28\u91cf\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>1\u3001\u968f\u65f6\u95f4\u79ef\u7d2f\u6709\u7528\u4fe1\u606f\u7684\u4f18\u52bf\uff0c\u800c\u4e14\uff0c\u4f60\u53ea\u9700\u8981\u5728\u67d0\u4e2a\u65f6\u95f4\u70b9\u6dfb\u52a0\u4e00\u4e9b\u589e\u91cf\u4fe1\u606f\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>2\u3001\u6211\u4eec\u9996\u5148\u4f1a\u770b\u90a3\u4e9b\u6211\u4eec\u8ba4\u4e3a\u53ef\u4ee5\u7406\u89e3\u7684\u516c\u53f8\u62a5\u544a\uff08\u4ee5\u6211\u4eec\u80fd\u591f\u7406\u89e3\u7684\u8bed\u8a00\u4ea4\u6d41\u65f6\uff0c\u8fd9\u786e\u5b9e\u4f1a\u589e\u5f3a\u6211\u4eec\u5bf9\u6295\u8d44\u8be5\u4e1a\u52a1\u7684\u4fe1\u5fc3\uff09\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u6211\u4eec\u8bfb\u5230\u7684\u662f\u4e00\u5806\u516c\u5173\u5957\u8bdd\uff0c\u5145\u6ee1\u4e86\u56fe\u7247\u5374\u6ca1\u6709\u4e8b\u5b9e\uff0c\u8fd9\u4f1a\u5bf9\u6211\u4eec\u5bf9\u8be5\u4e1a\u52a1\u7684\u6001\u5ea6\u4ea7\u751f\u4e00\u4e9b\u5f71\u54cd\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>3\u3001\u6211\u4eec\u5e0c\u671b\u5728\u8bfb\u5b8c\u5e74\u5ea6\u62a5\u544a\u540e\u6bd4\u62ff\u8d77\u62a5\u544a\u65f6\u66f4\u597d\u5730\u7406\u89e3\u8be5\u4e1a\u52a1\u3002\u800c\u5982\u679c\u7ba1\u7406\u5c42\u613f\u610f\u8fd9\u6837\u505a\uff0c\u8fd9\u5e76\u4e0d\u96be\u5b9e\u73b0\u3002\u5982\u679c\u4ed6\u4eec\u4e0d\u60f3\u8fd9\u6837\u505a\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u8ba4\u4e3a\u8fd9\u662f\u6211\u4eec\u662f\u5426\u613f\u610f\u5728\u5341\u5e74\u5de6\u53f3\u7684\u65f6\u95f4\u91cc\u4e0e\u4ed6\u4eec\u6210\u4e3a\u5408\u4f5c\u4f19\u4f34\u7684\u4e00\u4e2a\u8003\u91cf\u56e0\u7d20\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"11997-05-05_Berkshire_Hathaway_Annual_Meeting\">1\u3001<a href=\"https:\/\/eikon.moom.cn\/portal\/zh\/kb\/articles\/1997-05-05-berkshire-hathaway-annual-meeting#74_Advantage_of_accumulation_of_useful_information\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">\u300a1997-05-05 Berkshire Hathaway Annual Meeting\u300b<\/a><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>74. \u201cAdvantage of accumulation of useful information\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201c\u79ef\u7d2f\u6709\u7528\u4fe1\u606f\u7684\u4f18\u52bf\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>WARREN BUFFETT: What was the first question? Oh, the part about organizing \u2014<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u6c83\u4f26\u00b7\u5df4\u83f2\u7279\uff1a \u7b2c\u4e00\u4e2a\u95ee\u9898\u662f\u4ec0\u4e48\uff1f\u54e6\uff0c\u5173\u4e8e\u7ec4\u7ec7\u4fe1\u606f\u7684\u90e8\u5206\u2014\u2014<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>AUDIENCE MEMBER: Oh, I\u2019m just wondering, for those of us on the other side of the table, we get barraged with information. And I\u2019m wondering how do you both \u2014 do you just read annuals, 10-Ks, and talk to people, and ignore everything else? And how do you keep track of everything, intellectually \u2014?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u89c2\u4f17\uff1a \u54e6\uff0c<strong>\u6211\u53ea\u662f\u60f3\u77e5\u9053\uff0c\u5bf9\u4e8e\u6211\u4eec\u8fd9\u4e9b\u5750\u5728\u684c\u5b50\u53e6\u4e00\u4fa7\u7684\u4eba\u6765\u8bf4\uff0c\u603b\u662f\u88ab\u4fe1\u606f\u6df9\u6ca1\u3002\u6211\u60f3\u77e5\u9053\u4f60\u4eec\u662f\u5982\u4f55\u5904\u7406\u7684\u2014\u2014\u662f\u53ea\u770b\u5e74\u62a5\u300110-K\u62a5\u544a\uff0c\u4e0e\u4eba\u4ea4\u8c08\uff0c\u800c\u5ffd\u7565\u5176\u4ed6\u4e00\u5207\u5417\uff1f\u4f60\u4eec\u5982\u4f55\u5728\u667a\u529b\u4e0a\u638c\u63a7\u4e00\u5207\u2014\u2014\uff1f<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>WARREN BUFFETT: Well, we don\u2019t keep track of everything. But the beauty of \u2014 to some extent \u2014 of evaluating businesses \u2014 large businesses \u2014 is that it is all cumulative. I mean, if you started doing it 40 or so years ago, you really have got a working knowledge of an awful lot of businesses.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u6c83\u4f26\u00b7\u5df4\u83f2\u7279\uff1a \u55ef\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u5e76\u4e0d\u638c\u63a7\u4e00\u5207\u3002\u4f46\u8bc4\u4f30\u4f01\u4e1a\u2014\u2014\u5c24\u5176\u662f\u5927\u578b\u4f01\u4e1a\u2014\u2014\u5728\u67d0\u79cd\u7a0b\u5ea6\u4e0a\u7684\u5999\u5904\u5728\u4e8e\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e00\u5207\u90fd\u662f\u7d2f\u79ef\u7684\u3002\u6211\u7684\u610f\u601d\u662f\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u4f60\u4ece40\u5e74\u524d\u5f00\u59cb\u505a\u8fd9\u4ef6\u4e8b\uff0c\u4f60\u5b9e\u9645\u4e0a\u5df2\u7ecf\u5bf9\u8bb8\u591a\u4f01\u4e1a\u79ef\u7d2f\u4e86\u5b9e\u7528\u7684\u77e5\u8bc6\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>But there aren\u2019t that many, to start with, that are, you know \u2014<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u4f46\u4e00\u5f00\u59cb\u4e5f\u6ca1\u6709\u90a3\u4e48\u591a\uff0c\u60a8\u77e5\u9053\u2014\u2014<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>And you can get a fix. You know, how many \u2014 what are there? Seventy-five, maybe, or so important industries. And you\u2019ll get to understand how they operate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u800c\u4e14\u60a8\u53ef\u4ee5\u638c\u63e1\u8fd9\u4e9b\u3002\u60a8\u77e5\u9053\uff0c\u6709\u591a\u5c11\u4e2a\u2014\u2014\u5927\u7ea6\u6709\u591a\u5c11\u4e2a\uff1f\u4e5f\u8bb8\u670975\u4e2a\u5de6\u53f3\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u884c\u4e1a\u3002\u800c\u60a8\u4f1a\u9010\u6e10\u7406\u89e3\u5b83\u4eec\u662f\u5982\u4f55\u8fd0\u4f5c\u7684\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>And you don\u2019t have to start over again every day. And you don\u2019t have to consult a computer for it or anything like that, it \u2014<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u800c\u4e14\u60a8\u4e0d\u9700\u8981\u6bcf\u5929\u4ece\u5934\u5f00\u59cb\uff0c\u4e5f\u4e0d\u9700\u8981\u501f\u52a9\u7535\u8111\u6216\u5176\u4ed6\u7c7b\u4f3c\u7684\u5de5\u5177\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>So it has the advantage of accumulation of useful information over time. And, you know, you just add the incremental bit at some point.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u5b83\u5177\u6709\u968f\u7740\u65f6\u95f4\u79ef\u7d2f\u6709\u7528\u4fe1\u606f\u7684\u4f18\u52bf\u3002\u800c\u4e14\uff0c\u60a8\u77e5\u9053\uff0c\u60a8\u53ea\u9700\u8981\u5728\u67d0\u4e2a\u65f6\u95f4\u70b9\u6dfb\u52a0\u4e00\u4e9b\u589e\u91cf\u4fe1\u606f\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>You know, why did we decide to buy Coca-Cola in 1988? Well, it may have been, you know, just a couple small incremental bits of information. But that came into a mass that had been accumulated over decades.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u60a8\u77e5\u9053\uff0c<strong>\u6211\u4eec\u4e3a\u4ec0\u4e48\u57281988\u5e74\u51b3\u5b9a\u4e70\u5165\u53ef\u53e3\u53ef\u4e50\uff1f\u55ef\uff0c\u4e5f\u8bb8\u53ea\u662f\u56e0\u4e3a\u51e0\u6761\u5c0f\u7684\u589e\u91cf\u4fe1\u606f\u3002\u4f46\u8fd9\u4e9b\u4fe1\u606f\u878d\u5165\u4e86\u51e0\u5341\u5e74\u6765\u79ef\u7d2f\u7684\u5927\u91cf\u77e5\u8bc6\u4e2d\u3002<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>And it\u2019s a very \u2014 it\u2019s a great business that way. It\u2019s why we like businesses that don\u2019t change too much, because the past is useful to us.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u8fd9\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u975e\u5e38\u2014\u2014\u8fd9\u79cd\u65b9\u5f0f\u5f88\u68d2\u3002\u8fd9\u4e5f\u662f\u6211\u4eec\u559c\u6b22\u53d8\u5316\u4e0d\u5927\u7684\u4f01\u4e1a\u7684\u539f\u56e0\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u8fc7\u53bb\u5bf9\u6211\u4eec\u6709\u7528\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Charlie?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u67e5\u7406\uff1f<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>CHARLIE MUNGER: I can\u2019t add a thing to that.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u67e5\u7406\u00b7\u8292\u683c\uff1a \u6211\u5bf9\u6b64\u65e0\u53ef\u8865\u5145\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"21998-05-04_Berkshire_Hathaway_Annual_Meeting\">2\u3001<a href=\"https:\/\/eikon.moom.cn\/portal\/zh\/kb\/articles\/1998-05-04-berkshire-hathaway-annual-meeting#33_What_Buffett_wants_in_an_annual_report\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">\u300a1998-05-04 Berkshire Hathaway Annual Meeting\u300b<\/a><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>33. What Buffett wants in an annual report<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u5df4\u83f2\u7279\u5bf9\u5e74\u5ea6\u62a5\u544a\u7684\u671f\u671b<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>WARREN BUFFETT: OK. Zone 2.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u6c83\u4f26\u00b7\u5df4\u83f2\u7279\uff1a \u597d\u7684\uff0c\u8bf7\u7b2c\u4e8c\u533a\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>AUDIENCE MEMBER: Hello. I\u2019m Steve Davis (PH) from San Francisco.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u89c2\u4f17\u63d0\u95ee\u8005\uff1a \u4f60\u597d\uff0c\u6211\u662f\u6765\u81ea\u65e7\u91d1\u5c71\u7684\u53f2\u8482\u592b\u00b7\u6234\u7ef4\u65af\uff08\u97f3\uff09\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>I\u2019d like your advice on how to understand annual reports. What you look for, what\u2019s important, what\u2019s not important, and what you\u2019ve learned over the years from reading thousands of reports? Thank you.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u6211\u60f3\u8bf7\u6559\u60a8\u5173\u4e8e\u5982\u4f55\u89e3\u8bfb\u5e74\u5ea6\u62a5\u544a\u7684\u5efa\u8bae\u3002\u60a8\u5173\u6ce8\u4ec0\u4e48\uff0c\u4ec0\u4e48\u91cd\u8981\uff0c\u4ec0\u4e48\u4e0d\u91cd\u8981\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u60a8\u4ece\u9605\u8bfb\u6570\u5343\u4efd\u62a5\u544a\u4e2d\u5b66\u5230\u4e86\u4ec0\u4e48\uff1f\u8c22\u8c22\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>WARREN BUFFETT: Well, we\u2019ve read a lot of reports, I will tell you that.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u6c83\u4f26\u00b7\u5df4\u83f2\u7279\uff1a \u55ef\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u786e\u5b9e\u8bfb\u8fc7\u5f88\u591a\u62a5\u544a\uff0c\u6211\u53ef\u4ee5\u544a\u8bc9\u4f60\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>And we \u2014 well, we start by looking at the reports of companies that we think we can understand. So we hope to find \u2014 we hope to be reading reports \u2014 and I do read hundreds of them every year \u2014 we hope to be reading reports of businesses that are understandable to us.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u6211\u4eec\u2014\u2014\u6211\u4eec\u9996\u5148\u4f1a\u770b\u90a3\u4e9b\u6211\u4eec\u8ba4\u4e3a\u53ef\u4ee5\u7406\u89e3\u7684\u516c\u53f8\u62a5\u544a\u3002\u6240\u4ee5\u6211\u4eec\u5e0c\u671b\u627e\u5230\u2014\u2014\u6211\u4eec\u5e0c\u671b\u9605\u8bfb\u90a3\u4e9b\u2014\u2014<strong>\u6211\u6bcf\u5e74\u786e\u5b9e\u9605\u8bfb\u6570\u767e\u4efd\u2014\u2014\u6211\u4eec\u5e0c\u671b\u9605\u8bfb\u7684\u62a5\u544a\u662f\u5173\u4e8e\u6211\u4eec\u80fd\u591f\u7406\u89e3\u7684\u4e1a\u52a1\u7684\u3002<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>And then we see from that report whether the management is telling us about the things that we would want to know about if we owned a hundred percent of the company.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u7136\u540e\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u4f1a\u4ece\u62a5\u544a\u4e2d\u770b\u7ba1\u7406\u5c42\u662f\u5426\u5728\u544a\u8bc9\u6211\u4eec\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u6211\u4eec\u62e5\u6709\u516c\u53f8100%\u7684\u80a1\u4efd\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u60f3\u4e86\u89e3\u7684\u5185\u5bb9\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>And when we find a management that does tell us about those things, and that is candid in the same way that a manager of a subsidiary would be candid with us, and talks in language that we can understand, it definitely improves our feeling about investing in such a business.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u5f53\u6211\u4eec\u53d1\u73b0\u7ba1\u7406\u5c42\u786e\u5b9e\u5728\u544a\u8bc9\u6211\u4eec\u8fd9\u4e9b\u5185\u5bb9\uff0c\u5e76\u4e14\u50cf\u5b50\u516c\u53f8\u7ecf\u7406\u5bf9\u6211\u4eec\u5766\u8bda\u4e00\u6837\u5766\u7387\uff0c<strong>\u5e76\u4e14\u4ee5\u6211\u4eec\u80fd\u591f\u7406\u89e3\u7684\u8bed\u8a00\u4ea4\u6d41\u65f6\uff0c\u8fd9\u786e\u5b9e\u4f1a\u589e\u5f3a\u6211\u4eec\u5bf9\u6295\u8d44\u8be5\u4e1a\u52a1\u7684\u4fe1\u5fc3\u3002<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>And the reverse turns us off, to some extent. So if we read a bunch of public relations gobbledygook, you know, and we see lots of pictures and no facts, it has some effect on our attitude toward a business.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u53cd\u4e4b\uff0c\u8fd9\u5728\u67d0\u79cd\u7a0b\u5ea6\u4e0a\u4f1a\u8ba9\u6211\u4eec\u611f\u5230\u4e0d\u6ee1\u3002\u6240\u4ee5\uff0c<strong>\u5982\u679c\u6211\u4eec\u8bfb\u5230\u7684\u662f\u4e00\u5806\u516c\u5173\u5957\u8bdd\uff0c\u5145\u6ee1\u4e86\u56fe\u7247\u5374\u6ca1\u6709\u4e8b\u5b9e\uff0c\u8fd9\u4f1a\u5bf9\u6211\u4eec\u5bf9\u8be5\u4e1a\u52a1\u7684\u6001\u5ea6\u4ea7\u751f\u4e00\u4e9b\u5f71\u54cd\u3002<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>We want to understand the business better when we get through with the annual report than when we picked it up. And that is not difficult for a management to do if they want to do it.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u6211\u4eec\u5e0c\u671b\u5728\u8bfb\u5b8c\u5e74\u5ea6\u62a5\u544a\u540e\u6bd4\u62ff\u8d77\u62a5\u544a\u65f6\u66f4\u597d\u5730\u7406\u89e3\u8be5\u4e1a\u52a1\u3002\u800c\u5982\u679c\u7ba1\u7406\u5c42\u613f\u610f\u8fd9\u6837\u505a\uff0c\u8fd9\u5e76\u4e0d\u96be\u5b9e\u73b0\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>If they don\u2019t want to do it, you know, we think that is a factor in whether we want to be their partners over a ten-year period or so.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u5982\u679c\u4ed6\u4eec\u4e0d\u60f3\u8fd9\u6837\u505a\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u8ba4\u4e3a\u8fd9\u662f\u6211\u4eec\u662f\u5426\u613f\u610f\u5728\u5341\u5e74\u5de6\u53f3\u7684\u65f6\u95f4\u91cc\u4e0e\u4ed6\u4eec\u6210\u4e3a\u5408\u4f5c\u4f19\u4f34\u7684\u4e00\u4e2a\u8003\u91cf\u56e0\u7d20\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>But we\u2019ve learned a lot from annual reports. For example, I would say that the Coca-Cola annual report over the last good many years is an enormously informative document. I mean, I can\u2019t think of any way if I\u2019d have a conversation with Roberto Goizueta, or now Doug Ivester, and they were telling me about the business, they would not be telling me more than I get from reading that annual report.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u4f46\u6211\u4eec\u4ece\u5e74\u5ea6\u62a5\u544a\u4e2d\u5b66\u5230\u4e86\u5f88\u591a\u4e1c\u897f\u3002\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u6211\u4f1a\u8bf4\uff0c\u53ef\u53e3\u53ef\u4e50\u591a\u5e74\u6765\u7684\u5e74\u5ea6\u62a5\u544a\u662f\u4e00\u4efd\u4fe1\u606f\u91cf\u6781\u5927\u7684\u6587\u4ef6\u3002\u6211\u7684\u610f\u601d\u662f\uff0c\u6211\u65e0\u6cd5\u60f3\u8c61\u5373\u4f7f\u6211\u4e0e\u7f57\u4f2f\u6258\u00b7\u6208\u4f0a\u82cf\u57c3\u5854\u6216\u73b0\u5728\u7684\u9053\u683c\u00b7\u827e\u7ef4\u65af\u7279\u4ea4\u8c08\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u80fd\u544a\u8bc9\u6211\u7684\u5185\u5bb9\u4f1a\u6bd4\u6211\u4ece\u9605\u8bfb\u5e74\u5ea6\u62a5\u544a\u4e2d\u83b7\u5f97\u7684\u66f4\u591a\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>We bought that stock based on an annual report. We did not buy it based on any conversation of any kind with the top management of Coca-Cola before we bought our interest. We simply bought it based on reading the annual report, plus our knowledge of how the business worked.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u6211\u4eec\u4e70\u5165\u8fd9\u53ea\u80a1\u7968\u5b8c\u5168\u662f\u57fa\u4e8e\u5e74\u5ea6\u62a5\u544a\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u5728\u4e70\u5165\u53ef\u53e3\u53ef\u4e50\u7684\u80a1\u4efd\u4e4b\u524d\uff0c\u5e76\u6ca1\u6709\u4e0e\u5176\u9ad8\u7ba1\u8fdb\u884c\u4efb\u4f55\u5f62\u5f0f\u7684\u4ea4\u8c08\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u53ea\u662f\u901a\u8fc7\u9605\u8bfb\u5e74\u5ea6\u62a5\u544a\uff0c\u518d\u52a0\u4e0a\u5bf9\u4e1a\u52a1\u8fd0\u4f5c\u65b9\u5f0f\u7684\u4e86\u89e3\uff0c\u505a\u51fa\u4e86\u4e70\u5165\u51b3\u5b9a\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Charlie?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u67e5\u7406\uff1f<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>CHARLIE MUNGER: Yeah. I do think the \u2014 if you\u2019ve got a standardized bunch of popular jargon that looks like it came out of the same consulting firm, I do think it\u2019s a big turnoff. That\u2019s not to say that some of the consulting mantras aren\u2019t right. But I think there\u2019s a lot \u2014 that for a sort of candid, simple, coherent prose \u2014 a lot to be said for it.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u67e5\u7406\u00b7\u8292\u683c\uff1a \u662f\u7684\u3002\u6211\u786e\u5b9e\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u4e00\u4efd\u62a5\u544a\u5145\u65a5\u7740\u4e00\u5806\u770b\u8d77\u6765\u50cf\u662f\u51fa\u81ea\u540c\u4e00\u5bb6\u54a8\u8be2\u516c\u53f8\u7684\u6d41\u884c\u672f\u8bed\uff0c\u4f1a\u8ba9\u4eba\u975e\u5e38\u53cd\u611f\u3002\u8fd9\u5e76\u4e0d\u662f\u8bf4\u67d0\u4e9b\u54a8\u8be2\u6d41\u884c\u8bed\u4e0d\u6b63\u786e\u3002<strong>\u4f46\u6211\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u5766\u7387\u3001\u7b80\u5355\u3001\u8fde\u8d2f\u7684\u8868\u8fbe\u6709\u5f88\u5927\u7684\u4ef7\u503c\u3002<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>WARREN BUFFETT: Almost every business has problems, and we\u2019d just as soon the manager would tell us about them.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u6c83\u4f26\u00b7\u5df4\u83f2\u7279\uff1a \u51e0\u4e4e\u6bcf\u4e2a\u4f01\u4e1a\u90fd\u6709\u95ee\u9898\uff0c\u800c\u6211\u4eec\u5e0c\u671b\u7ecf\u7406\u80fd\u76f4\u63a5\u544a\u8bc9\u6211\u4eec\u8fd9\u4e9b\u95ee\u9898\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>We would like that in the businesses we run. In fact, one of the things, we give very little advice to our managers, but one thing we always do say is to tell us the bad news immediately. And I don\u2019t see why that isn\u2019t good advice for the manager of a public company.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u6211\u4eec\u5e0c\u671b\u5728\u6211\u4eec\u7ecf\u8425\u7684\u4f01\u4e1a\u4e2d\u770b\u5230\u8fd9\u79cd\u505a\u6cd5\u3002\u4e8b\u5b9e\u4e0a\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u5f88\u5c11\u7ed9\u7ecf\u7406\u4eec\u5efa\u8bae\uff0c\u4f46\u6211\u4eec\u603b\u662f\u544a\u8bc9\u4ed6\u4eec\u7684\u4e00\u4ef6\u4e8b\u5c31\u662f\uff0c\u7acb\u5373\u544a\u8bc9\u6211\u4eec\u574f\u6d88\u606f\u3002\u6211\u4e0d\u660e\u767d\u4e3a\u4ec0\u4e48\u8fd9\u5bf9\u4e0a\u5e02\u516c\u53f8\u7684\u7ecf\u7406\u6765\u8bf4\u4e0d\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u597d\u5efa\u8bae\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Over time, you know, I\u2019m positive it\u2019s the best policy. But a lot of companies, for example, have investor relations people, and they are dying just to pump out what they think is good news all the time.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u968f\u7740\u65f6\u95f4\u7684\u63a8\u79fb\uff0c\u6211\u786e\u4fe1\u8fd9\u662f\u6700\u597d\u7684\u653f\u7b56\u3002\u4f46\u5f88\u591a\u516c\u53f8\u90fd\u6709\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u5173\u7cfb\u56e2\u961f\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u70ed\u8877\u4e8e\u4e0d\u505c\u5730\u53d1\u5e03\u4ed6\u4eec\u8ba4\u4e3a\u7684\u597d\u6d88\u606f\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>And they have this attitude that, you know, you\u2019ve got a bunch of animals out there to be fed. And that they\u2019re going to feed them what they want to eat all the time. And over time the animals learn.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u4ed6\u4eec\u7684\u6001\u5ea6\u662f\uff0c<strong>\u4f60\u77e5\u9053\uff0c\u4f60\u6709\u4e00\u7fa4\u9700\u8981\u88ab\u5582\u517b\u7684\u52a8\u7269\u3002\u4ed6\u4eec\u4f1a\u4e00\u76f4\u5582\u7ed9\u8fd9\u4e9b\u52a8\u7269\u60f3\u8981\u7684\u4e1c\u897f\u3002\u4f46\u968f\u7740\u65f6\u95f4\u7684\u63a8\u79fb\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u52a8\u7269\u4e5f\u4f1a\u5b66\u4f1a\u8fa8\u522b\u3002<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>So we\u2019ve tried to stay away from businesses like that.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u5c3d\u91cf\u907f\u5f00\u8fd9\u6837\u7684\u516c\u53f8\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>CHARLIE MUNGER: What you seldom see in an annual report is a sentence like this: \u201cThis is a very serious problem and we haven\u2019t quite figured out yet how to handle it.\u201d (Laughter)<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u67e5\u7406\u00b7\u8292\u683c\uff1a \u4f60\u5f88\u5c11\u5728\u5e74\u5ea6\u62a5\u544a\u4e2d\u770b\u5230\u8fd9\u6837\u4e00\u53e5\u8bdd\uff1a<strong>\u201c\u8fd9\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u975e\u5e38\u4e25\u91cd\u7684\u95ee\u9898\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u8fd8\u6ca1\u6709\u5b8c\u5168\u60f3\u51fa\u5982\u4f55\u89e3\u51b3\u5b83\u3002\u201d<\/strong>\uff08\u7b11\u58f0\uff09<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>But believe me, that is an accurate statement much of the time.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u4f46\u76f8\u4fe1\u6211\uff0c\u8fd9\u5728\u5f88\u591a\u65f6\u5019\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u51c6\u786e\u7684\u63cf\u8ff0\u3002<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>VOICE: \u2014 just a moment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u65c1\u767d\uff1a \u7a0d\u7b49\u4e00\u4e0b\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>(Buffett leaves the table after someone tells him something in his ear.)<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>(\u5df4\u83f2\u7279\u542c\u5b8c\u522b\u4eba\u8033\u8bed\u540e\u79bb\u5f00\u4e86\u5ea7\u4f4d\u3002)<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"32007-05-05_Berkshire_Hathaway_Annual_Meeting\">3\u3001<a href=\"https:\/\/eikon.moom.cn\/portal\/zh\/kb\/articles\/2007-05-05-berkshire-hathaway-annual-meeting#35_What_an_annual_report_tells_you_about_the_CEO\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">\u300a2007-05-05 Berkshire Hathaway Annual Meeting\u300b<\/a><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>35. What an annual report tells you about the CEO<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u5e74\u5ea6\u62a5\u544a\u544a\u8bc9\u4f60\u5173\u4e8e\u9996\u5e2d\u6267\u884c\u5b98\u7684\u4fe1\u606f<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>WARREN BUFFETT: Number 3.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u6c83\u4f26\u00b7\u5df4\u83f2\u7279\uff1a\u7b2c\u4e09\u540d\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>AUDIENCE MEMBER: Hi. My name is Stuart Kaye, and I\u2019m from New York City.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u89c2\u4f17\u6210\u5458\uff1a\u4f60\u597d\u3002\u6211\u7684\u540d\u5b57\u662f\u65af\u56fe\u5c14\u7279\u00b7\u51ef\uff0c\u6211\u6765\u81ea\u7ebd\u7ea6\u5e02\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Warren and Charlie, you spend a lot of time evaluating the management quality and integrity of the companies that you may invest in.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u6c83\u4f26\u548c\u67e5\u7406\uff0c\u4f60\u4eec\u82b1\u4e86\u5f88\u591a\u65f6\u95f4\u8bc4\u4f30\u9002\u6295\u516c\u53f8\u7684\u7ba1\u7406\u8d28\u91cf\u548c\u8bda\u4fe1\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In my current job, I do not have the opportunity to do that. As I read through annual reports and financial statements, what do you suggest I focus on to help me to determine the quality and integrity of management?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u5728\u6211\u76ee\u524d\u7684\u5de5\u4f5c\u4e2d\uff0c\u6211\u6ca1\u6709\u673a\u4f1a\u8fd9\u6837\u505a\u3002\u5f53\u6211\u9605\u8bfb\u5e74\u5ea6\u62a5\u544a\u548c\u8d22\u52a1\u62a5\u8868\u65f6\uff0c\u60a8\u5efa\u8bae\u6211\u5173\u6ce8\u54ea\u4e9b\u65b9\u9762\u4ee5\u5e2e\u52a9\u6211\u5224\u65ad\u7ba1\u7406\u5c42\u7684\u8d28\u91cf\u548c\u8bda\u4fe1\uff1f<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>WARREN BUFFETT: Well, you can \u2014 we\u2019ve spent many, many years \u2014 and we\u2019ve bought many things. I mean, I \u2014 without meeting managements at all, having any entree to them.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u6c83\u4f26\u00b7\u5df4\u83f2\u7279\uff1a\u55ef\uff0c\u4f60\u53ef\u4ee5\u2014\u2014\u6211\u4eec\u82b1\u4e86\u5f88\u591a\u5f88\u591a\u5e74\u2014\u2014\u6211\u4eec\u4e70\u4e86\u5f88\u591a\u4e1c\u897f\u3002\u6211\u7684\u610f\u601d\u662f\uff0c\u6211\u2014\u2014\u5b8c\u5168\u6ca1\u6709\u89c1\u8fc7\u7ba1\u7406\u5c42\uff0c\u4e5f\u6ca1\u6709\u4efb\u4f55\u63a5\u89e6\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The stocks \u2014 the 5 billion of stocks \u2014 that we may have bought in the first quarter, most of those were companies I never met the management, never talked to them.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u8fd9\u4e9b\u80a1\u7968\u2014\u2014\u4ef7\u503c 50 \u4ebf\u7684\u80a1\u7968\u2014\u2014\u6211\u4eec\u53ef\u80fd\u5728\u7b2c\u4e00\u5b63\u5ea6\u4e70\u5165\uff0c\u5176\u4e2d\u5927\u591a\u6570\u516c\u53f8\u7684\u7ba1\u7406\u5c42\u6211\u4ece\u672a\u89c1\u8fc7\uff0c\u4e5f\u4ece\u672a\u4e0e\u4ed6\u4eec\u4ea4\u8c08\u8fc7\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>We read a lot.&nbsp;<strong>We read annual reports. We read about competitors. We read about the industries they\u2019re in.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u6211\u4eec\u9605\u8bfb\u5f88\u591a\u3002<strong>\u6211\u4eec\u9605\u8bfb\u5e74\u5ea6\u62a5\u544a\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u9605\u8bfb\u5173\u4e8e\u7ade\u4e89\u5bf9\u624b\u7684\u4fe1\u606f\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u9605\u8bfb\u5173\u4e8e\u4ed6\u4eec\u6240\u5728\u884c\u4e1a\u7684\u4fe1\u606f\u3002<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In terms of sizing up managements \u2014 obviously if we\u2019re going to buy the whole business, that\u2019s a different question. Then you \u2014 because you \u2014 we\u2019re going to buy it, be in bed with them, they\u2019re going to run them, and we care very much about whether they\u2019re going to behave in the future as they have in the past once we own the business. And we\u2019ve had very good luck on that.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u5728\u8bc4\u4f30\u7ba1\u7406\u5c42\u65b9\u9762\u2014\u2014\u663e\u7136\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u6211\u4eec\u8981\u6536\u8d2d\u6574\u4e2a\u4f01\u4e1a\uff0c\u90a3\u662f\u53e6\u4e00\u4e2a\u95ee\u9898\u3002\u56e0\u4e3a\u6211\u4eec\u8981\u4e70\u4e0b\u5b83\uff0c\u4e0e\u4ed6\u4eec\u5408\u4f5c\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u5c06\u8d1f\u8d23\u8fd0\u8425\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u975e\u5e38\u5173\u5fc3\u4ed6\u4eec\u5728\u6211\u4eec\u62e5\u6709\u4f01\u4e1a\u540e\u662f\u5426\u4f1a\u50cf\u8fc7\u53bb\u4e00\u6837\u884c\u4e8b\u3002\u5728\u8fd9\u65b9\u9762\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u4e00\u76f4\u5f88\u5e78\u8fd0\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>But in terms of marketable securities, we read the reports. Now, Charlie and I were just talking about one the other day where we read an annual report of a large oil company.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u4f46\u5728\u6709\u4ef7\u8bc1\u5238\u65b9\u9762\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u9605\u8bfb\u4e86\u62a5\u544a\u3002\u73b0\u5728\uff0c\u67e5\u7406\u548c\u6211\u521a\u521a\u8c08\u5230\u524d\u51e0\u5929\u6211\u4eec\u9605\u8bfb\u4e86\u4e00\u5bb6\u5927\u578b\u77f3\u6cb9\u516c\u53f8\u7684\u5e74\u5ea6\u62a5\u544a\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>And the company \u2014 you know, hundred pages, public relations people, lots of pictures \u2014 spent a fortune on it. And you can\u2019t find in that report what their finding cost per McF or per barrel of oil was last year. That\u2019s the most important figure in an oil and gas company over a period of years, but every year counts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u800c\u8fd9\u5bb6\u516c\u53f8\u2014\u2014\u4f60\u77e5\u9053\u7684\uff0c100\u9875\uff0c\u516c\u5173\u4eba\u5458\uff0c\u5f88\u591a\u56fe\u7247\u2014\u2014\u82b1\u4e86\u4e00\u5927\u7b14\u94b1\u3002\u800c\u4f60\u5728\u90a3\u4efd\u62a5\u544a\u4e2d\u627e\u4e0d\u5230\u4ed6\u4eec\u53bb\u5e74\u6bcf\u5343\u7acb\u65b9\u82f1\u5c3a\u6216\u6bcf\u6876\u77f3\u6cb9\u7684\u52d8\u63a2\u6210\u672c\u3002\u8fd9\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u77f3\u6cb9\u548c\u5929\u7136\u6c14\u516c\u53f8\u591a\u5e74\u4e2d\u6700\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u6570\u5b57\uff0c\u4f46\u6bcf\u4e00\u5e74\u90fd\u5f88\u91cd\u8981\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The fact it wouldn\u2019t even be discussed \u2014 the reason it wasn\u2019t discussed, it was absolutely terrible \u2014 but the fact it wouldn\u2019t even be discussed \u2014 and to the extent it was touched on, it was done in a dishonest manner.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u4e8b\u5b9e\u4e0a\uff0c\u8fd9\u4ef6\u4e8b\u751a\u81f3\u4e0d\u4f1a\u88ab\u8ba8\u8bba\u2014\u2014\u4e4b\u6240\u4ee5\u6ca1\u6709\u88ab\u8ba8\u8bba\uff0c\u662f\u56e0\u4e3a\u5b83\u7edd\u5bf9\u7cdf\u7cd5\u2014\u2014\u4f46\u4e8b\u5b9e\u4e0a\uff0c\u5b83\u751a\u81f3\u4e0d\u4f1a\u88ab\u8ba8\u8bba\u2014\u2014\u5373\u4f7f\u6d89\u53ca\u5230\uff0c\u4e5f\u662f\u5728\u4e0d\u8bda\u5b9e\u7684\u65b9\u5f0f\u4e0b\u8fdb\u884c\u7684\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>When we read things where we basically are getting dishonest messages from the management, it makes a difference to us.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u5f53\u6211\u4eec\u9605\u8bfb\u90a3\u4e9b\u57fa\u672c\u4e0a\u4ece\u7ba1\u7406\u5c42\u90a3\u91cc\u5f97\u5230\u4e0d\u8bda\u5b9e\u4fe1\u606f\u7684\u5185\u5bb9\u65f6\uff0c\u8fd9\u5bf9\u6211\u4eec\u6765\u8bf4\u662f\u6709\u5f71\u54cd\u7684\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>You know, like I say, in marketable securities we can solve that by selling the stock, and it\u2019s not the same thing as buying the entire business.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u4f60\u77e5\u9053\uff0c\u5c31\u50cf\u6211\u8bf4\u7684\uff0c\u5728\u6709\u4ef7\u8bc1\u5238\u65b9\u9762\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u53ef\u4ee5\u901a\u8fc7\u5356\u51fa\u80a1\u7968\u6765\u89e3\u51b3\u8fd9\u4e2a\u95ee\u9898\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e0e\u8d2d\u4e70\u6574\u4e2a\u4e1a\u52a1\u4e0d\u662f\u4e00\u56de\u4e8b\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>But I think you can learn a lot by reading the annual letters. I mean,&nbsp;<strong>for one thing, if it\u2019s clearly the product of some investor relations department or outside consultant or something of the sort, you know, that tells you something about the individual.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u4f46\u6211\u8ba4\u4e3a\u4f60\u53ef\u4ee5\u901a\u8fc7\u9605\u8bfb\u5e74\u5ea6\u4fe1\u4ef6\u5b66\u5230\u5f88\u591a\u4e1c\u897f\u3002\u6211\u7684\u610f\u601d\u662f\uff0c<strong>\u5982\u679c\u8fd9\u663e\u7136\u662f\u67d0\u4e2a\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u5173\u7cfb\u90e8\u95e8\u6216\u5916\u90e8\u987e\u95ee\u6216\u7c7b\u4f3c\u673a\u6784\u7684\u4ea7\u7269\uff0c\u4f60\u77e5\u9053\uff0c\u8fd9\u5c31\u544a\u8bc9\u4f60\u4e00\u4e9b\u5173\u4e8e\u8fd9\u4e2a\u4eba\u7684\u4fe1\u606f\u3002<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>If he\u2019s not willing to talk once a year through a few pages to the people that gave him their money to invest, I mean, that \u2014 I\u2019ve really got \u2014 I\u2019ve got some questions about people like that.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u5982\u679c\u4ed6\u4e0d\u613f\u610f\u6bcf\u5e74\u901a\u8fc7\u51e0\u9875\u7eb8\u4e0e\u90a3\u4e9b\u628a\u94b1\u4ea4\u7ed9\u4ed6\u6295\u8d44\u7684\u4eba\u4ea4\u6d41\uff0c\u6211\u662f\u8bf4\uff0c\u6211\u771f\u7684\u5bf9\u8fd9\u6837\u7684\u4eba\u6709\u4e00\u4e9b\u7591\u95ee\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>So I like that feeling that I\u2019m hearing directly from somebody who regards me as a partner.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u6240\u4ee5\u6211\u559c\u6b22\u90a3\u79cd\u611f\u89c9\uff0c\u6211\u76f4\u63a5\u542c\u5230\u4e00\u4e2a\u628a\u6211\u89c6\u4e3a\u4f19\u4f34\u7684\u4eba\u8bf4\u8bdd\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>And you may not get it all the way, but when I get it 0 percent of the way, I don\u2019t like it.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u800c\u4e14\u4f60\u53ef\u80fd\u65e0\u6cd5\u5b8c\u5168\u505a\u5230\uff0c\u4f46\u5f53\u6211\u4e00\u70b9\u90fd\u505a\u4e0d\u5230\u65f6\uff0c\u6211\u4e0d\u559c\u6b22\u3002<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>I\u2019ve still bought \u2014 we\u2019ve still bought into some \u2014 in marketable securities \u2014 we\u2019ve bought into some extremely good businesses where we thought they were run by people we didn\u2019t really like very well, because we didn\u2019t feel they could screw them up.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u6211\u4ecd\u7136\u4e70\u5165\u4e86\u2014\u2014\u6211\u4eec\u4ecd\u7136\u4e70\u5165\u4e86\u4e00\u4e9b\u2014\u2014\u53ef\u4ea4\u6613\u8bc1\u5238\u2014\u2014\u6211\u4eec\u4e70\u5165\u4e86\u4e00\u4e9b\u975e\u5e38\u597d\u7684\u4f01\u4e1a\uff0c\u5c3d\u7ba1\u6211\u4eec\u8ba4\u4e3a\u8fd9\u4e9b\u4f01\u4e1a\u7531\u6211\u4eec\u4e0d\u592a\u559c\u6b22\u7684\u4eba\u7ecf\u8425\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u6211\u4eec\u89c9\u5f97\u4ed6\u4eec\u65e0\u6cd5\u641e\u7838\u8fd9\u4e9b\u4f01\u4e1a\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Charlie? \u67e5\u7406\uff1f<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>CHARLIE MUNGER: Yeah. I think that\u2019s exactly right. There are two things: the quality of the business and the quality of the management.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u67e5\u7406\u00b7\u8292\u683c\uff1a\u662f\u7684\u3002\u6211\u8ba4\u4e3a\u8fd9\u5b8c\u5168\u6b63\u786e\u3002\u6709\u4e24\u4ef6\u4e8b\uff1a\u4e1a\u52a1\u7684\u8d28\u91cf\u548c\u7ba1\u7406\u7684\u8d28\u91cf\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>And if the business is good enough, it will carry a lousy manager. And the converse case, where a really good manager gets in a really lousy business, he\u2019ll ordinarily have a very imperfect record.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u5982\u679c\u4e1a\u52a1\u8db3\u591f\u597d\uff0c\u5b83\u53ef\u4ee5\u5bb9\u5fcd\u4e00\u4e2a\u7cdf\u7cd5\u7684\u7ecf\u7406\u3002\u53cd\u8fc7\u6765\uff0c\u4e00\u4e2a\u975e\u5e38\u4f18\u79c0\u7684\u7ecf\u7406\u8fdb\u5165\u4e00\u4e2a\u975e\u5e38\u7cdf\u7cd5\u7684\u4e1a\u52a1\uff0c\u4ed6\u901a\u5e38\u4f1a\u6709\u4e00\u4e2a\u975e\u5e38\u4e0d\u5b8c\u7f8e\u7684\u8bb0\u5f55\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In other words, it\u2019s a rare person that can take over a textile business, totally doomed, which is what Warren did in his youthful folly \u2014<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u6362\u53e5\u8bdd\u8bf4\uff0c\u5f88\u5c11\u6709\u4eba\u80fd\u591f\u63a5\u624b\u4e00\u4e2a\u5b8c\u5168\u6ce8\u5b9a\u5931\u8d25\u7684\u7eba\u7ec7\u4e1a\u52a1\uff0c\u8fd9\u5c31\u662f\u6c83\u4f26\u5728\u5e74\u8f7b\u65f6\u7684\u611a\u8822\u884c\u4e3a\u2014\u2014<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>WARREN BUFFETT: Right.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u6c83\u4f26\u00b7\u5df4\u83f2\u7279\uff1a\u5bf9\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>CHARLIE MUNGER: \u2014 and turn it into what\u2019s happened here. You should not be looking for other Warrens on the theory they\u2019re under every bush.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u67e5\u7406\u00b7\u8292\u683c\uff1a\u2014\u2014\u5e76\u5c06\u5176\u8f6c\u5316\u4e3a\u8fd9\u91cc\u53d1\u751f\u7684\u4e8b\u60c5\u3002\u4f60\u4e0d\u5e94\u8be5\u6839\u636e\u4ed6\u4eec\u5728\u6bcf\u4e2a\u89d2\u843d\u90fd\u5b58\u5728\u7684\u7406\u8bba\u53bb\u5bfb\u627e\u5176\u4ed6\u7684\u6c83\u4f26\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>WARREN BUFFETT: I figured it out in 20 years, though. I\u2019ll have to say that for myself. (Laughs)<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u6c83\u4f26\u00b7\u5df4\u83f2\u7279\uff1a\u4e0d\u8fc7\uff0c\u6211\u5728 20 \u5e74\u5185\u60f3\u660e\u767d\u4e86\u3002\u6211\u5f97\u4e3a\u81ea\u5df1\u8bf4\u8fd9\u4e00\u70b9\u3002\uff08\u7b11\uff09<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Twenty years, and I finally figured out I was in the wrong business.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u4e8c\u5341\u5e74\u540e\uff0c\u6211\u7ec8\u4e8e\u660e\u767d\u6211\u9009\u9519\u4e86\u884c\u4e1a\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>But there are businesses \u2014 if you gave me first draft pick of all the CEOs in America and said it\u2019s your job to run Ford Motor now or, you know, pick a company that\u2019s in a terribly tough business, you know, I wouldn\u2019t do it.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u4f46\u662f\u6709\u4e9b\u4f01\u4e1a\u2014\u2014\u5982\u679c\u4f60\u8ba9\u6211\u4ece\u6240\u6709\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u9996\u5e2d\u6267\u884c\u5b98\u4e2d\u6311\u9009\u7b2c\u4e00\u987a\u4f4d\uff0c\u5e76\u8bf4\u73b0\u5728\u4f60\u7684\u5de5\u4f5c\u662f\u7ecf\u8425\u798f\u7279\u6c7d\u8f66\u516c\u53f8\uff0c\u6216\u8005\u9009\u62e9\u4e00\u5bb6\u5904\u4e8e\u6781\u5176\u8270\u96be\u884c\u4e1a\u7684\u516c\u53f8\uff0c\u6211\u4e0d\u4f1a\u53bb\u505a\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>I mean, that it\u2019s just too tough. They may get it solved, you know, if they get cooperation from unions and a whole bunch of things, but it will not be solely in the control of the CEO who has that job.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u6211\u7684\u610f\u601d\u662f\uff0c\u8fd9\u5b9e\u5728\u662f\u592a\u96be\u4e86\u3002\u4f60\u77e5\u9053\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u4ed6\u4eec\u5f97\u5230\u5de5\u4f1a\u548c\u4e00\u5927\u5806\u4e8b\u60c5\u7684\u5408\u4f5c\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u89e3\u51b3\u8fd9\u4e2a\u95ee\u9898\uff0c\u4f46\u8fd9\u4e0d\u4f1a\u4ec5\u4ec5\u7531\u62c5\u4efb\u8be5\u804c\u4f4d\u7684\u9996\u5e2d\u6267\u884c\u5b98\u63a7\u5236\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>He is dependent on too many good things happening outside to say that he alone can get the job<\/strong>, even if he\u2019s the best in the world.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u4ed6\u8fc7\u4e8e\u4f9d\u8d56\u5916\u754c\u7684\u597d\u4e8b\u6765\u4e34\uff0c\u65e0\u6cd5\u4ec5\u51ed\u81ea\u5df1\u5c31\u80fd\u597d\u8fd9\u4efd\u5de5\u4f5c<\/strong>\uff0c\u5373\u4f7f\u4ed6\u662f\u4e16\u754c\u4e0a\u6700\u4f18\u79c0\u7684\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u4e54\u5e03\u65af\u56de\u5230\u82f9\u679c\u540e\u518d\u4e0d\u60f3\u505aTo B\u7684\u4e1a\u52a1\uff0c\u4ed6\u8ba4\u4e3aTo C\u624d\u662f\u4ed6\u771f\u6b63\u60f3\u505a\u7684\u3002<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u91cd\u70b9\u5173\u6ce8\u4e24\u4ef6\u4e8b\uff1a\u4e1a\u52a1\u7684\u8d28\u91cf\u548c\u7ba1\u7406\u7684\u8d28\u91cf\u3002 1\u3001\u968f\u65f6\u95f4\u79ef\u7d2f\u6709\u7528\u4fe1\u606f\u7684\u4f18\u52bf\uff0c\u800c\u4e14\uff0c\u4f60\u53ea\u9700\u8981\u5728\u67d0\u4e2a\u65f6\u95f4\u70b9\u6dfb\u52a0\u4e00\u4e9b\u589e\u91cf &hellip; <\/p>\n<p class=\"link-more\"><a href=\"http:\/\/101.43.65.133:8899\/?p=894\" class=\"more-link\">Read more<span class=\"screen-reader-text\"> &#8220;Warren Buffett.How to read annual reports&#8221;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":415,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[6,20],"tags":[155,17,7,154],"class_list":["post-894","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-knowledge","category-warren-e-buffett","tag-idea","tag-17","tag-7","tag-154"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"http:\/\/101.43.65.133:8899\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/894","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"http:\/\/101.43.65.133:8899\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"http:\/\/101.43.65.133:8899\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/101.43.65.133:8899\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/101.43.65.133:8899\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=894"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"http:\/\/101.43.65.133:8899\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/894\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":897,"href":"http:\/\/101.43.65.133:8899\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/894\/revisions\/897"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/101.43.65.133:8899\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/415"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"http:\/\/101.43.65.133:8899\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=894"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/101.43.65.133:8899\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=894"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/101.43.65.133:8899\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=894"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}